OURA’S 85% RETENTION QUESTION: WHO ACTUALLY PAID—AND WHO ACTUALLY STAYED?

Oura markets five million members, 94% conversion and 85% retention. Its September 3 S-1 reveals that “Paid Members” can include failed payments and free concessions, partner programs can pay for the user, and cancelled members who return can be counted as retained.

Part I of this analysis followed Oura’s money: membership revenue, deferred revenue, receivables, cash flow and approximately $1.48 billion of company-funded share repurchases before the IPO.

Part II asks a simpler question:

The S-1 does not provide that number.

Oura uses one label—“Paid Member”—to describe several economically different people. It then uses that blended population to support claims about conversion, retention, recurring revenue, predictability and lifetime value.

The headline and the fine print describe different things

At the time of this analysis, Oura’s consumer membership page places two statements close together:

• “A comprehensive view of your health for just $5.99 USD/month.”
• “5+ Million Oura Members.”

A consumer or investor could naturally connect those statements and conclude that more than five million people are personally paying Oura a monthly or annual subscription.

That is not what the S-1 establishes.

Each number may be technically correct under Oura’s stated definition. The problem is the economic impression created when the numbers are presented together without the bridges connecting them.

“Paid Member” does not necessarily mean “paying now”

Oura defines a Paid Member as a member who has activated the paid membership service, provided a valid payment method and is not in an initial free trial.

Then the definition expands.

Oura states that Paid Members include:

• members in a grace period of up to 28 days after a failed payment;
• members receiving a limited period of free membership as a concession; and
• members who cancelled voluntarily but remain inside a prepaid membership period.

These categories can overlap. A partner-sponsored member may be on an annual program. A self-paying member may later receive a concession. A member whose payment fails may subsequently be recovered.

But Oura does not disclose how many people occupy any of these categories.

Five million Paid Members is not the same statement as five million individuals currently making successful payments to Oura.

The 94% conversion claim has a denominator problem

Oura states that historically more than 94% of ring activations convert to Paid Members.

That is not necessarily equivalent to saying that 94% of people who purchase an Oura Ring become durable paying subscribers.

The S-1 does not disclose:

• the percentage of rings sold that are activated;
• whether replacement or upgrade activations are excluded;
• how many activations came through partner programs;
• how many conversions received a concession;
• whether conversion requires a successfully completed first charge;
• how long the converted member remained; or
• whether the conversion was monthly, annual, self-paid or sponsored.

Oura’s own membership page says a member can connect more than one ring without needing another membership. Rings and members are therefore not necessarily one-to-one.

The precise statement supported by the filing is narrower:

The 85% is not continuous 12-month retention

Oura calls its metric “Weighted-Average 12-Month Paid Member Retention.” Members are grouped into monthly cohorts based on the start date of their paid membership.

At the 12-month interval, Oura calculates the percentage remaining. But the S-1 expressly states that retention is:

Oura defines a winback as a reactivated Paid Member who cancelled for at least 28 days.

Therefore, a member can leave, remain gone long enough to satisfy Oura’s own cancellation definition, return later and contribute to the retention result.

The 85% is not:

• continuous 12-month membership;
• continuous successful payment;
• continuous personally funded membership;
• the percentage of members who never cancelled;
• the annual renewal rate;
• revenue retention; or
• the percentage who paid during all 12 months.

Two very different cohorts can produce the same 85%

Consider two hypothetical cohorts that each begin with 100 members:

The headline statistic is identical.

But Cohort B experienced more cancellation, fewer continuous member-months and potentially less subscription revenue. The economic difference depends on how long the 15 winbacks were absent and what they paid after returning.

Failed payments and free concessions can affect retention

The retention metric is calculated using the Paid Member population. That population includes failed-payment members still inside the 28-day grace period and members temporarily receiving service for free.

A person can therefore potentially qualify as retained at the measurement date even though Oura has not collected the latest payment or is currently providing the membership without charge.

The filing does not disclose:

• how many grace-period members are included in the retention numerator;
• how many failed payments are subsequently recovered;
• how many become involuntary cancellations;
• how many free concessions are outstanding;
• why concessions are offered;
• the average concession period; or
• whether concessions are concentrated near the 12-month measurement date.

This does not prove those populations are large. It means investors cannot determine whether they are large, small or immaterial.

Partner retention is not consumer retention

Oura expressly states that a portion of its membership base is supported by partner programs in which a partner pays on behalf of eligible users.

It then makes the economically important disclosure: if a partner stops paying or the individual loses eligibility, the user must convert to an individually paid membership—and many may not do so.

A sponsored user can be a legitimate member and can produce legitimate revenue. But sponsored retention answers a different question:

Combining the populations can obscure consumer willingness to pay, price sensitivity, voluntary renewal, customer-acquisition economics, lifetime value and dependence on large partner contracts.

Oura does not disclose partner-funded member count, partner revenue, retention by payer type or the conversion rate from sponsored to self-paid membership.

The 85% cannot be converted into a conventional churn rate

If 85% represented ordinary continuous annual retention, an analyst might calculate an implied monthly churn rate:

They might then use that churn rate to estimate customer lifetime value.

That would be inappropriate here because Oura’s metric includes winbacks, may include payment failures in grace, includes free concessions, blends self-paying and partner-supported members, does not measure retained revenue and does not disclose the number of paid months inside the 12-month period.

Oura connects the metric to attractive lifetime value and durable, predictable subscription revenue. But investors cannot independently reconstruct lifetime value using the disclosed information.

Status retention is not revenue retention. An active account is not necessarily a successfully paying customer.

Monthly, annual and sponsored members are blended together

Oura reports that approximately 63% of new members during the nine months ended June 30, 2026 began with an annual plan.

But the retention statistic does not separately report:

• monthly-member retention;
• annual-plan renewal;
• partner-sponsored retention;
• concession-member retention;
• domestic versus international retention; or
• retention by acquisition channel.

A prepaid annual subscription and a cancel-anytime monthly subscription have different churn mechanics. Oura also states that voluntary cancellation generally takes effect at the end of the prepaid membership period.

The filing does not explain precisely how a scheduled annual cancellation is treated at the 12-month measurement boundary. Investors need a clean annual-plan renewal rate—not merely a combined status statistic.

The weighted average cannot be independently reconstructed

Oura weights monthly cohorts by cohort size. Conceptually:

Weighting is not inherently improper. But rapid growth means the largest, newest eligible cohorts can dominate the aggregate result.

Oura reports retention of approximately 81% for fiscal 2023 cohorts, 85% for fiscal 2024 cohorts and 87% for the nine months ended June 30, 2025. It says the aggregate size of the latest group was more than 2.5 times the size of the fiscal 2023 cohorts.

Yet Oura does not publish monthly cohort sizes, monthly cohort retention, winbacks by cohort, payer mix by cohort or the reconciliation that produces the headline 85%.

“Membership revenue” is not entirely subscription revenue

Oura reported $240.5 million of membership revenue for the nine months ended June 30, 2026.

But an accounting note states that revenue from certain extended-warranty service contracts is recognized immediately when sold and included within membership revenue.

The membership-revenue category therefore is not necessarily composed entirely of recurring monthly and annual subscription revenue.

Oura does not disclose the amount attributable to:

• direct consumer subscriptions;
• partner-paid subscriptions;
• monthly plans;
• annual plans;
• extended warranties;
• international pricing; or
• other membership-related arrangements.

This prevents a clean calculation of subscription ARPU, retained subscription revenue or revenue per successful self-paying member.

The member count still does not reconcile cleanly to price

Using Oura’s quarterly Paid Member figures, a straight-line estimate produces approximately 35.85 million member-months for the nine months ended June 30, 2026.

That is higher than both the $5.99 U.S. monthly price and the approximately $5.83 monthly equivalent of the $69.99 annual plan.

This does not prove a misstatement. International pricing, extended-warranty revenue, partner economics, foreign exchange, rapid intra-quarter growth and rounded member counts may explain the difference.

But it demonstrates why Oura should disclose recognized subscription revenue per average successfully paying member.

Missing Info I’d Like To See

What Oura has—and has not—demonstrated

Oura has not demonstrated that:

1. five million individuals are personally paying for memberships;
2. 94% of ring purchasers become durable paying subscribers;
3. 85% of members remain continuously subscribed for 12 months;
4. 85% make successful payments throughout the year;
5. the reported retention represents voluntary consumer renewal; or
6. $240.5 million is entirely recurring subscription revenue.

What the filing demonstrates is narrower:

The forensic conclusion

The problem is not that Oura has proved its numbers are false.

The problem is that its headline numbers answer narrower questions than ordinary language suggests.

Oura’s marketing reduces the membership business to a compelling story: millions of consumers join, pay and remain.

Oura’s legal disclosure reveals a blended population: some consumers pay personally, some are sponsored, some receive concessions, some have failed payments, some cancelled and some returned.

The missing number is the only one that resolves the question: How many individual consumers continuously and successfully paid Oura with their own money for the entire 12-month period?

The September 3 S-1 does not tell us.

Primary sources: Oura Inc., Form S-1 filed September 3, 2026; Oura Membership; and Oura for Organizations.

This forensic analysis is based solely on publicly available information and Oura’s own definitions. It does not allege accounting impropriety and should not be interpreted as investment advice.